Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb716…f61c other 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,850 (+2%) realized +$966 · open +$884
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate75%100W / 33L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$654per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$12,729now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days−$739
14 days−$626
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 24% −$689
crypto 20% +$386
world 19% +$1,600
other 16% +$237
sports 10% +$776
economics 6% +$48
finance 4% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -5.7% -14.7% 41% 18% -14.2%
≤30d 32 +9.6% -0.8% 62% 34% -9.7%
≤90d 60 +5.7% -4.4% 70% 28% -6.8%
all 133 -0.2% -9.7% 75% 17% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 17% -8.0%
10% -18.3% 6% -16.8%
15% -26.2% 4% -24.8%
20% -33.5% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$925) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$61 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$12,729
Realized+$966
Unrealized+$884
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses100 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions25
Markets (closed)133 / 158
History coverage230d
Avg bet$654
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Villeneuve be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 84¢ 99¢ $2,168 $2,578 +$410 (+19%)
Will Marcus Nordmark be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 86¢ 98¢ $1,255 $1,434 +$180 (+14%)
Will Maddox Dagenais be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 84¢ 99¢ $1,069 $1,265 +$196 (+18%)
Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,007 $1,029 +$22 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 84¢ 81¢ $1,008 $978 −$30 (-3%)
Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 98¢ 98¢ $768 $776 +$7 (+1%)
Will Maddox Dagenais be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 95¢ 98¢ $508 $526 +$18 (+3%)
Will Tynan Lawrence be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 97¢ 98¢ $470 $477 +$7 (+2%)
Will Nikita Klepov be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 98¢ 99¢ $430 $436 +$6 (+1%)
Will Mathis Preston be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 95¢ 98¢ $420 $433 +$13 (+3%)
Will Marcus Nordmark be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 94¢ 100¢ $372 $395 +$23 (+6%)
Will Markus Ruck be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 96¢ 99¢ $356 $368 +$12 (+3%)
Will Wyatt Cullen be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 95¢ 99¢ $324 $337 +$13 (+4%)
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $284 $289 +$5 (+2%)
Will Ethan Belchetz be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 96¢ 99¢ $231 $237 +$7 (+3%)
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $220 $230 +$10 (+5%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $190 $197 +$7 (+4%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? No 94¢ 98¢ $188 $196 +$8 (+4%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $140 $150 +$10 (+7%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $145 $145 −$0 (-0%)
Will JP Hurlbert be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 99¢ 99¢ $107 $107 −$0 (-0%)
Will Markus Ruck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? No 77¢ 97¢ $39 $49 +$10 (+26%)
Will Liam Ruck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 99¢ 50¢ $68 $34 −$34 (-49%)
Will Tommy Bleyl be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 99¢ 50¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $131 +$25 +19%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 25 $1,362 −$149 -11%
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? Jun 25 $2,523 +$8 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $400 +$82 +21%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $4,393 +$119 +3%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $2,276 +$27 +1%
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Jun 24 $228 −$60 -26%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 23 $385 −$216 -56%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 23 $162 −$18 -11%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 23 $178 −$27 -15%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 23 $132 −$19 -14%
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 23 $122 −$122 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 23 $582 −$6 -1%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 23 $225 −$225 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $20 +$59 +289%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 22 $262 −$262 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 21 $925 +$46 +5%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 +$55 +365%
Will Taylor Hall win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $27 +$3 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $1,035 +$15 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 +$15 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $79 +$21 +27%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $27 +$3 +12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 06 $2,500 +$588 +24%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $4,705 +$61 +1%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 06 $269 +$46 +17%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $460 +$9 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1,346 −$6 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 30 $156 −$136 -87%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $924 +$12 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26? May 30 $8 +$2 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 30 $300 +$2 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 26? May 26 $67 +$10 +16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $142 +$4 +3%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 26 $96 −$29 -30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 26 $646 +$12 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 26 $150 +$5 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 20 $2,000 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $1,416 +$112 +8%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 11 2026? May 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $501 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 13 $300 +$700 +233%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 04 $582 +$122 +21%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 04 $598 +$102 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 27 $1,500 +$37 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $2,004 −$148 -7%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? Apr 20 $444 +$30 +7%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 20 $983 +$10 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 20 $688 +$102 +15%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $500 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will JP Hurlbert be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $107 1h
Will Tommy Bleyl be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Markus Ruck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Liam Ruck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $68 1h
Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No 100¢ $385 1h
Will Ethan Belchetz be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Ethan Belchetz be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 98¢ $89 1h
Will Tynan Lawrence be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Nikita Klepov be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No 100¢ $17 1h
Will Nikita Klepov be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Nikita Klepov be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Nikita Klepov be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Nikita Klepov be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $148 1h
Will Nikita Klepov be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $90 1h
Will Nikita Klepov be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 98¢ $69 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $156 2h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 19¢ $1,213 2h
Will Mathis Preston be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 95¢ $420 2h
Will Maddox Dagenais be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 95¢ $509 2h
Will Marcus Nordmark be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 86¢ $1,260 2h
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2,531 2h
Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 100¢ $164 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $482 2h
Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 97¢ $981 2h
Will Tynan Lawrence be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 96¢ $371 2h
Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 97¢ $1,008 2h
Will Wyatt Cullen be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 95¢ $324 2h
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $2,329 2h
Will Ethan Belchetz be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 95¢ $191 2h
Will Markus Ruck be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 96¢ $356 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,729.34 · official $12,729.46 (match) · 1121 history records