Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:44:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb715…2161 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+3%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1
other 18% +$33
politics 15% +$5
sports 9% −$3
tech 7% $0
crypto 4% $0
finance 4% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+45.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 14 -2.2% -11.5% 36% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 14 -2.2% -11.5% 36% 0% -9.8%
all 39 +61.0% +45.7% 49% 8% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.7% 8% -6.4%
10% +31.8% 8% -15.4%
15% +19.0% 8% -23.6%
20% +7.4% 8% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +127% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.62 per $1 lost it wins $7.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage455d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $68 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $5 −$1 -27%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 19 $2 $0 -10%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Jun 24 $47 +$1 +2%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $48 −$3 -6%
Will Freddie Freeman lead the MLB in RBI's? Apr 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 13 $1 $0 +21%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 13 $33 $0 -1%
Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Masters? Apr 13 $13 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? Apr 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 13 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 12 $6 +$4 +71%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 11 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 10 $47 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $10 +$33 +342%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 02 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $37 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $26 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $27 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 43h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $33 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $4 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $4 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $40 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.96 · official $38.96 (match) · 144 history records