Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:51:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B7 0xb714…d7d2 other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$37
politics 21% −$8
economics 5% −$2
sports 5% +$36
tech 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 107 -0.2% -9.7% 13% 9% -9.6%
all 107 -0.2% -9.7% 13% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 9% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 8% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 7% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)107 / 110
History coverage85d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $201 $200 −$1 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 57¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ 54¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $132 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $65 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $734 −$1 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $64 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $93 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $148 $0 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $51 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 30 $67 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $62 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $317 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $339 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 16 $336 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $329 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 07 $311 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $316 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $342 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 03 $342 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $329 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $329 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $350 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $317 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 25 $352 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $340 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 24 $326 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $323 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $324 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $353 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $344 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $64 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $64 3h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $13 5h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $13 10h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $201 24h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 26h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 29h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $73 9d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $65 12d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $65 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 14d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $64 16d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $64 16d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 17d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 18d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $67 18d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 19d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 19d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 20d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $93 21d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 25d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.76 · official $225.76 (match) · 337 history records