Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B7 0xb713…1fa3 other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 251d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$30 (-10%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$51
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$51
economics 10% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +54.5% +39.8% 21% 21% +8.5%
≤30d 14 +54.5% +39.8% 21% 21% +8.5%
≤90d 14 +54.5% +39.8% 21% 21% +8.5%
all 15 +44.2% +30.4% 20% 20% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.4% 20% -2.1%
10% +18.0% 20% -11.5%
15% +6.6% 20% -20.1%
20% -3.9% 20% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +121% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$13 · ×4.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage251d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$85 +414%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 +$66 +1288%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$31 +62%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $50 26m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 22h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 32h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 34h
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 249d
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 8¢ $18 251d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records