Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:50:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B7 0xb712…7069 world 7 markets active 3h ago coverage 56d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$2,658 (+29%) realized +$2,615 · open +$43
Gross ROI / mkt +98% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +72% what you keep after slip
Net edge+72%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$1,312per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$842
7 days−$842
14 days−$529
30 days−$2,618
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 91% −$2,575
politics 9% +$6,869
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+79.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -90.6% -91.5% 0% 0% -91.5%
≤30d 5 -52.5% -57.0% 40% 20% -49.0%
≤90d 6 +97.9% +79.0% 50% 33% +46.9%
all 6 +97.9% +79.0% 50% 33% +46.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +79.0% 33% +46.9%
10% +61.9% 17% +32.9%
15% +46.3% 17% +20.0%
20% +31.9% 17% +8.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +98% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,394 vs −$977 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$2,615
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage56d
Avg bet$1,312
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes $87 $130 +$43 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $929 −$842 -91%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $764 +$164 +22%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $2,221 +$148 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 03 $1,949 −$1,949 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 05 $808 +$6,869 +850%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $87 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $87 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $929 9d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $928 9d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $764 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 87¢ $764 11d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $569 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $162 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $166 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $0 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $0 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $241 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $0 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $0 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $181 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $0 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $0 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $0 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $0 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $0 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $0 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $0 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $63 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $0 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $0 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $0 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $0 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $235 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $5 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1,600 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.50 · official $130.50 (match) · 51 history records