Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb710…1f9f world 25 markets active 1d ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%6W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% +$2
politics 26% +$1
world 16% −$8
tech 15% +$24
crypto 14% $0
sports 0% −$6
weather 0% −$6
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 10 -1.4% -10.8% 10% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 21 -6.9% -15.8% 24% 0% -8.6%
all 24 -13.5% -21.7% 25% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 0% -9.2%
10% -29.2% 0% -17.9%
15% -36.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -42.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses6 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage486d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $2 $0 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $11 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $85 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $45 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $35 +$2 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $43 −$5 -12%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $326 +$1 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $291 +$23 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $137 +$1 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $270 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $83 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $3 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $6 −$3 -44%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $273 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $183 $0 +0%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on February 25? Mar 20 $7 −$6 -87%
UMBC vs. UMass Lowell Feb 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 25 $6 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $1 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $34 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $34 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $38 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $38 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $35 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $17 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records