Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B7
0xb70d…43f4
weather · 456 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$8,000 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,050 · open +$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$51
Realized+$5,050
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses314 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)452 / 456
History coverage72d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day43.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 452 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,431
7 days−$4,151
14 days−$2,845
30 days−$3,832
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? No 16¢ 34¢ $20 $43 +$24 (+122%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Yes 16¢ 35¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+119%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $37 +$42 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $231 +$37 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $113 +$86 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $64 +$15 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 −$13 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 −$9 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 5? Jun 13 $107 −$47 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 8? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 13 $21 −$15 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 5? Jun 13 $12 −$7 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on April 14? Jun 13 $186 +$43 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 18? Jun 13 $102 −$79 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 20? Jun 13 $17 −$9 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 13? Jun 13 $1,757 −$1,509 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 30? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 31? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 27? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 28? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on May 1? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 15? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on May 2? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 17? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 15? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 20? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on April 25? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 16? Jun 13 $502 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 24? Jun 13 $58 −$26 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 29? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 30? Jun 13 $114 −$102 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 9? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 15? Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 17? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 20? Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on April 18? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 20? Jun 13 $45 −$35 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 3? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 17? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 28? Jun 13 $183 −$60 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 28? Jun 13 $82 −$72 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 13? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 30? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 17? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 30? Jun 13 $43 −$38 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Jun 13 $93 −$93 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or higher on May 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$5,061
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 8m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? SELL No 25¢ $30 8m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 15m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 16¢ $41 17m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? SELL No 85¢ $136 17m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $114 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? SELL Yes 42¢ $41 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $33 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $95 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $47 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $70 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 59¢ $18 20h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $22 21h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? SELL Yes 20¢ $13 24h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 25h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 56¢ $113 27h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? BUY No 81¢ $64 27h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $20 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -61.0% -64.7% 22% 12% -38.6%
≤30d 182 -17.4% -25.2% 47% 26% -20.1%
≤90d 452 +6.7% -3.5% 69% 32% -6.8%
all 452 +6.7% -3.5% 69% 32% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 32% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -12.7% 17% -15.7%
15% -21.1% 10% -23.9%
20% -28.9% 6% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.69 · official $50.71 (match) · 3500 history records