Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
B7 0xb70d…f077 crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+7%) realized +$7 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate89%8W / 1L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$10
crypto 21% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +7.5% -2.7% 89% 56% +5.9%
≤30d 9 +7.5% -2.7% 89% 56% +5.9%
≤90d 9 +7.5% -2.7% 89% 56% +5.9%
all 9 +7.5% -2.7% 89% 56% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 56% +5.9%
10% -12.0% 22% -4.3%
15% -20.5% 22% -13.5%
20% -28.3% 11% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $16 +$8 +51%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $28 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $23 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $23 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $5 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $2 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.63 · official $50.63 (match) · 29 history records