Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:02:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb70b…6087 culture 367 markets active 0h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 177d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,712 (+7%) realized +$4,475 · open +$237
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate57%199W / 150L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$4,171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$293
14 days+$828
30 days+$630
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 47% +$2,959
sports 17% +$473
politics 13% $0
other 11% +$615
world 5% +$157
crypto 4% −$100
economics 2% −$3
tech 1% +$20
finance 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.5% -9.9% 62% 46% +1.1%
≤30d 37 -3.9% -13.1% 54% 38% -6.3%
≤90d 129 +8.9% -1.5% 61% 34% -3.1%
all 349 +3.7% -6.2% 57% 31% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 31% -4.2%
10% -15.2% 20% -13.4%
15% -23.4% 15% -21.7%
20% -30.9% 11% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$35 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$4,171
Realized+$4,475
Unrealized+$237
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses199 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions18
Markets (closed)349 / 367
History coverage177d ⚠
Avg bet$194
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 74¢ 97¢ $489 $644 +$155 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $483 $554 +$71 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $508 $410 −$99 (-19%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $377 $389 +$12 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $319 $386 +$66 (+21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $265 $353 +$87 (+33%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $326 $221 −$105 (-32%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $260 $199 −$60 (-23%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? Yes 30¢ 40¢ $140 $187 +$47 (+33%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m? Yes 36¢ 44¢ $154 $186 +$32 (+21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $157 $172 +$16 (+10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $130 $118 −$12 (-9%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $80 $88 +$8 (+10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $75 $76 +$1 (+2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $36 $74 +$38 (+104%)
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $63 $46 −$16 (-26%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $92 +$16 +17%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $71 +$49 +70%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $28 +$47 +164%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $52 −$51 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $72 +$6 +8%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be less than 15m? Jun 16 $122 +$9 +7%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 16 $209 −$148 -71%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $180 +$50 +28%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $350 +$293 +84%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $227 −$92 -40%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 14 $1,068 +$152 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -86%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 Jun 12 $7 +$18 +256%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m? Jun 09 $91 +$9 +10%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 09 $626 +$132 +21%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 09 $929 +$350 +38%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 06 $109 −$34 -32%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m? Jun 06 $16 −$1 -7%
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju Jun 06 $8 −$1 -11%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 06 $580 +$118 +20%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 05 $88 −$55 -63%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $9,000 $0 +0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? Jun 02 $10 +$8 +80%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 02 $984 +$240 +24%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $48 +$2 +4%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m Jun 01 $33 −$32 -97%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? May 31 $958 +$26 +3%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 May 31 $76 −$58 -76%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m May 29 $98 +$14 +15%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m May 29 $0 $0 -97%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $103 +$3 +3%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $11 −$8 -75%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 26 $237 −$84 -35%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 24 $946 −$344 -36%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 24 $504 +$189 +37%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? May 24 $191 −$156 -82%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner May 20 $56 +$14 +26%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m? May 19 $106 +$4 +4%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? May 19 $818 +$184 +22%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 16 $1,000 +$246 +25%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m? May 16 $60 −$7 -12%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m? May 16 $21 −$17 -80%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 23m May 15 $176 −$18 -10%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m? May 11 $456 +$567 +124%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m? May 11 $1,303 −$299 -23%
Will "Michael" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend? May 11 $375 +$5 +1%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m? May 11 $11 −$7 -60%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m May 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 11 $89 +$42 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 41¢ $25 23m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 39¢ $43 26m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 36¢ $54 1h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 32¢ $31 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 28¢ $1 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 30¢ $108 7h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m SELL Yes 30¢ $13 9h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 9h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m SELL Yes 40¢ $113 9h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? SELL Yes 14¢ $38 9h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $84 15h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 55¢ $108 21h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $92 22h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 43¢ $33 33h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 28¢ $8 41h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 28¢ $26 41h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 28¢ $4 41h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 28¢ $1 41h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 28¢ $2 41h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1 42h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $12 42h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $14 42h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $44 42h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 26¢ $55 42h
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY No 94¢ $377 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes $7 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 53¢ $78 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,171.23 · official $4,171.53 (match) · 3500 history records