Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B7 0xb70b…1668 sports 1184 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,541 (-1%) realized −$1,540 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate72%899W / 345L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$505est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$575
7 days−$522
14 days−$740
30 days−$353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$912
other 24% −$153
crypto 9% −$360
world 6% −$288
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -61.3% -65.0% 32% 11% -22.2%
≤30d 378 -18.7% -26.5% 66% 28% -10.5%
≤90d 1193 -12.6% -20.9% 73% 21% -10.4%
all 1244 -12.3% -20.6% 72% 21% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 21% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 12% -18.9%
15% -35.2% 7% -26.7%
20% -41.5% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$38 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized−$1,540
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses899 / 345
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$505
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1244 / 1184
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$219
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 236 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 G Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 31? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
WTT - Men's Singles: Truls Moeregaardh vs Thibault Poret Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
WTT - Men's Singles: Andre Bertelsmeier vs Anders Lind Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Magic vs. Lakers Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Knicks Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Ch Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 8AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Team Lynx (BO3) - EPL Championship Playoffs Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Suns Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-23? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Merida Open Akron: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 3AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 27? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-02-23? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs DRX Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 29, 9AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 3PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
St. Brieuc: Sebastian Ofner vs Charles Broom Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-02-27? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 3AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
WTT - Men's Singles: Alexis Lebrun vs Patrick Franziska Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 5AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Jazz vs. Rockets Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Kings vs. Rockets Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor Svrcina SELL Dalibor Svrcina 96¢ $99 58m
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Dalibor Svrcina 98¢ $50 1h
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Dalibor Svrcina 97¢ $50 1h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Sebastian Ofner 80¢ $30 1h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Clement Tabur 48¢ $30 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 98¢ $100 2h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 96¢ $26 2h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 93¢ $50 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 2h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 76¢ $50 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $534 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $98 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $302 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $105 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $32 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 45h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 61¢ $20 46h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 77¢ $50 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 46h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 58¢ $30 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin SELL Anhelina Kalinina 100¢ $101 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Anhelina Kalinina 99¢ $100 2d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 100¢ $100 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $30 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $142 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.43 · official $249.43 (match) · 3500 history records