Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B7 0xb706…b4e4 crypto 1050 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$120 (-1%) realized −$119 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%842W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days−$25
14 days−$42
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$179
other 4% −$110
sports 4% +$129
world 0% −$26
weather 0% −$7
finance 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -13.0% -21.3% 44% 44% -14.1%
≤30d 366 -2.8% -12.0% 91% 6% -11.0%
≤90d 1000 -1.6% -11.0% 82% 40% -11.5%
all 1048 -1.5% -10.9% 80% 40% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 40% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 12% -19.8%
15% -27.2% 6% -27.6%
20% -34.3% 3% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$119
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses842 / 206
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1048 / 1050
History coverage95d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1048 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$4 -9%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$67 +132%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$63 +123%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$26 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $25 +$10 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$17 -82%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $25 +$6 +26%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $116 −$114 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$11 +160%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 42m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $61 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $47 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $118 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $51 8h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 89¢ $114 8h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $51 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $25 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 11¢ $4 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 76¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $25 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $104 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.84 · official $108.84 (match) · 2774 history records