Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5

score

B7 0xb703…1a39 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 257d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$3,665 (+13%) realized +$3,670 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip

Net edge+13%after slip

Net WR83%break-even

Win rate83%10W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,569per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$696now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$1,493

7 days+$1,493

14 days+$1,493

30 days+$1,493

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +83%

net ROI/market (all)+18.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+70.2%	+54.0%	100%	100%	+45.5%
≤30d	5	+70.2%	+54.0%	100%	100%	+45.5%
≤90d	5	+70.2%	+54.0%	100%	100%	+45.5%
all	12	+30.4%	+18.0%	83%	83%	+12.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+18.0%	83%	+12.5%
10%	+6.7%	58%	+1.7%
15%	-3.6%	58%	-8.1%
20%	-13.1%	42%	-17.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 58% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +61% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +30% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -13% → late +74% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$934 vs −$2,383 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage

Net worth$696

Realized+$3,670

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)83%

Wins / losses10 / 2

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)12 / 18

History coverage257d

Avg bet$1,569

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	Canada	75¢	74¢	$701	$696	−$5 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND	Jun 28	$878	+$592	+67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND	Jun 28	$277	+$320	+116%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$10	+$8	+83%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$696	+$469	+67%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$593	+$103	+17%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Legacy (BO3)	Oct 31	$3,507	+$3,214	+92%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3)	Oct 31	$2,999	+$508	+17%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-10-29?	Oct 29	$7,934	−$4,590	-58%
Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-28?	Oct 29	$3,818	+$1,798	+47%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs MIBR (BO3)	Oct 28	$6,108	+$2,210	+36%
Will Serbia win on 2025-10-14?	Oct 14	$522	+$114	+22%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Legacy (BO3)	Oct 14	$175	−$175	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	BUY Canada	75¢	$135	1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	BUY Canada	75¢	$571	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AN	BUY	20¢	$19	31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	SELL	99¢	$18	31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND	BUY	59¢	$877	34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY	53¢	$10	34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND	BUY	46¢	$277	34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,165	34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND	BUY	58¢	$1	38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$336	38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$360	40h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	96¢	$697	40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND	BUY	3¢	$2	40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND	BUY	2¢	$1	40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND	BUY	3¢	$1	40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND	BUY	2¢	$1	40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND	BUY	1¢	$1	40h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	81¢	$593	41h
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Legacy (BO3)	SELL Legacy	100¢	$6,721	239d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Legacy (BO3)	BUY Legacy	54¢	$280	239d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Legacy (BO3)	BUY Legacy	54¢	$109	239d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Legacy (BO3)	BUY Legacy	54¢	$1,000	239d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Legacy (BO3)	BUY Legacy	50¢	$500	239d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Legacy (BO3)	BUY Legacy	52¢	$1,000	239d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Legacy (BO3)	BUY Legacy	51¢	$607	239d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Legacy (BO3)	BUY Legacy	45¢	$11	239d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3)	BUY Aurora Gaming	86¢	$2,999	241d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-10-29?	BUY No	58¢	$3,540	241d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-10-29?	SELL No	53¢	$3,344	241d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-10-29?	BUY No	70¢	$4,394	241d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $696.33 · official $696.33 (match) · 44 history records