Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:17:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb702…6bcf sports 395 markets active 0h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,787 (-7%) realized −$1,770 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%205W / 189L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days+$14
14 days+$70
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$1,055
other 31% −$724
world 0% −$62
crypto 0% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +17.3% +6.2% 59% 45% -8.8%
≤30d 28 +17.9% +6.7% 68% 54% -5.6%
≤90d 232 -23.7% -30.9% 43% 36% -27.5%
all 394 -4.2% -13.3% 52% 45% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 45% -15.7%
10% -21.6% 40% -23.8%
15% -29.2% 29% -31.1%
20% -36.1% 22% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$43 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,770
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses205 / 189
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions1
Markets (closed)394 / 395
History coverage155d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 394 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 35¢ $18 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $4 +$5 +126%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $103 +$14 +13%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $119 +$30 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$27 +264%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$22 -38%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $50 $0 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $135 +$46 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $65 −$48 -73%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $35 −$14 -40%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $87 −$45 -52%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $83 +$117 +140%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $64 −$31 -48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $149 +$7 +5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 +$34 +68%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $77 −$10 -14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$20 +38%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 15 $107 +$32 +30%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $88 +$57 +65%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 13 $107 −$74 -69%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 11 $43 +$2 +4%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 11 $200 +$6 +3%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Jun 06 $206 +$34 +17%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 06 $94 +$22 +23%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kia Tigers Jun 02 $200 +$3 +2%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 23 $48 +$13 +28%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 22 $30 +$6 +20%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Doosan Bears May 22 $38 +$12 +31%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 15 $155 +$24 +16%
KBO: LG Twins vs. SSG Landers May 15 $130 +$3 +2%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins May 12 $6 +$2 +42%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $114 +$37 +33%
Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score May 10 $96 −$25 -26%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $100 −$100 -100%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 10 $101 +$13 +13%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 09 $111 −$21 -19%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 09 $49 −$26 -54%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 May 09 $56 +$5 +9%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $100 +$34 +34%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 07 $33 −$33 -100%
Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorer May 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Luis Diaz: Anytime Goalscorer May 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer May 07 $38 −$38 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $72 −$72 -100%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 07 $39 +$61 +158%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? May 06 $50 −$42 -84%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. SSG Landers May 06 $41 +$18 +43%
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels May 06 $50 −$12 -24%
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 May 06 $56 +$34 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 26m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $18 52m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $28 54m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 60¢ $30 59m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 60¢ $59 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 73¢ $72 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $77 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $103 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $119 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 89¢ $20 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 89¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $15 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $37 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $10 3h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers SELL Kia Tigers 99¢ $49 8h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 100¢ $50 8h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 23¢ $20 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 26¢ $22 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $81 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $87 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 32h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $83 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $137 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $0 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $17 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $23 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 SELL Over 29¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 1529 history records