Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:41:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B7 0xb702…7af6 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$57 (-27%) realized −$57 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -79% what you keep after slip

Net edge-79%after slip

Net WR12%break-even

Win rate12%1W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$23per market

Trades / day2.8pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +12%

net ROI/market (all)-78.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-76.3%	-78.6%	12%	12%	-44.2%
≤30d	8	-76.3%	-78.6%	12%	12%	-44.2%
≤90d	8	-76.3%	-78.6%	12%	12%	-44.2%
all	8	-76.3%	-78.6%	12%	12%	-44.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-78.6%	12%	-44.2%
10%	-80.6%	12%	-49.5%
15%	-82.5%	12%	-54.4%
20%	-84.2%	12%	-58.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -76% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$45 vs −$15 · ×3.01 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.43 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$32

Realized−$57

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)12%

Wins / losses1 / 7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage4d

Avg bet$23

Trades / day2.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	44¢	44¢	$32	$32	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 25	$20	−$19	-97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$30	−$10	-33%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$50	+$45	+89%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$44	−$43	-98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$2	−$2	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	44¢	$33	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	36¢	$20	3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	5¢	$18	3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	5¢	$20	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$95	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$44	3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	1¢	$2	4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$50	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.56 · official $31.56 (match) · 12 history records