Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B7 0xb701…5f0e sports 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$260 (+15%) realized +$262 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%22W / 52L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$312
7 days+$426
14 days+$276
30 days+$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$180
other 20% +$50
crypto 19% +$26
tech 2% −$30
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +14.1% +3.2% 34% 33% +21.4%
≤30d 74 -2.4% -11.7% 30% 28% +4.9%
≤90d 74 -2.4% -11.7% 30% 28% +4.9%
all 74 -2.4% -11.7% 30% 28% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 28% +4.9%
10% -20.1% 27% -5.1%
15% -27.8% 26% -14.3%
20% -34.9% 26% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$12 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$262
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses22 / 52
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions4
Markets (closed)74 / 81
History coverage20d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 39¢ 38¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $142 +$30 +21%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$23 -75%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $24 −$17 -74%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 −$6 -41%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $22 −$16 -72%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$31 +123%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $19 +$32 +170%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$8 -49%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $190 +$122 +64%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 13 $101 −$10 -10%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $14 +$5 +32%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $117 +$105 +89%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $24 +$159 +673%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $48 −$32 -66%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $40 +$27 +67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $81 +$87 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$28 -54%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Nothing Ever Happens: June Jun 12 $13 −$4 -33%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$42 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $23 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 11 $15 +$12 +76%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +101%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $5 +$26 +508%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$16 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 50¢ $20 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $15 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $20 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 38¢ $20 11h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $172 11h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 11¢ $5 13h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 15h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Curaçao $5 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under $3 15h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under $5 15h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $12 15h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $8 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 15¢ $21 15h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 30¢ $9 15h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany $6 15h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 37¢ $8 15h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 17¢ $7 16h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 25¢ $0 17h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 25¢ $7 17h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 25¢ $2 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $57 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $5 29h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $51 29h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $20 29h
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Scotland 23¢ $5 32h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $5 32h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.25 · official $106.25 · 163 history records