Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:34:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb700…5a62 sports 1131 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 137d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$940 (-3%) realized −$940 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate41%461W / 669L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$186est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$48
14 days−$133
30 days−$269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$681
other 20% −$469
politics 2% +$40
world 1% −$8
culture 0% +$36
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +0.7% -8.9% 35% 28% -14.1%
≤30d 264 -7.8% -16.6% 37% 26% -16.3%
≤90d 825 -2.6% -11.9% 39% 29% -12.8%
all 1130 -0.7% -10.2% 41% 30% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 30% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 22% -21.1%
15% -26.6% 16% -28.8%
20% -33.8% 10% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$940
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses461 / 669
Est. fees paid−$186
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1130 / 1131
History coverage137d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $18 $0 -2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $49 −$10 -20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 +$12 +287%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $8 +$2 +21%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $8 +$4 +43%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $13 −$5 -36%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $16 +$2 +16%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $28 +$1 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$2 -54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 $0 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$2 -65%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 $0 -7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -21%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 -6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 −$2 -35%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 $0 -7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8 −$2 -21%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $8 $0 -4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $18 −$1 -7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$10 -49%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$6 +388%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$4 -76%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -74%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 −$1 -17%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $8 −$1 -6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $11 −$3 -24%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $7 +$4 +51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $8 −$3 -33%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $27 −$11 -41%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 −$3 -11%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$2 -6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $29 +$2 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $31 −$2 -7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$1 -11%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $21 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $18 42m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 89¢ $18 42m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $18 51m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 53¢ $18 52m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $21 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 60¢ $21 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $28 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $12 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $16 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 77¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 95¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $8 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $4 3h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 52¢ $4 3h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $8 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $8 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $13 4h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY SSG Landers 54¢ $5 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $18 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $16 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $16 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $14 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 88¢ $14 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $14 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $1 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.28 · official $17.28 (match) · 3500 history records