Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:56:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6fe…4e8d crypto 234 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-7%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate63%147W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$17
14 days+$1
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +5.4% -4.6% 93% 46% -2.5%
≤30d 234 -13.7% -21.9% 63% 34% -16.3%
≤90d 234 -13.7% -21.9% 63% 34% -16.3%
all 234 -13.7% -21.9% 63% 34% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 34% -16.3%
10% -29.4% 21% -24.3%
15% -36.2% 12% -31.6%
20% -42.5% 8% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses147 / 87
Open positions0
Markets (closed)234 / 234
History coverage29d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 234 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $14 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $14 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $14 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $14 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $14 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $14 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 448 history records