Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:00:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B6
0xb6fd…de28
crypto · 41 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
+$8 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses25 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)37 / 41
History coverage184d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 4 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A TYLOO 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 08 $1 +$1 +78%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 01 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 01 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 01 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 01 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 01 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 01 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 01 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 01 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 01 $3 +$1 +18%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -91%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 27 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 27 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FaZe (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Sta Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 3 Winner Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Danil "donk" Kryshkovets win the HLTV Player of the Year award? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Mar 20 $1 $0 +30%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 20 $1 +$1 +72%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $2 +$1 +73%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jan 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 13 $3 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Dec 13 $2 +$2 +95%
Will MOUZ win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Dec 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Dec 11 $3 +$4 +122%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 11 $7 +$8 +111%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 36% +$10
crypto 33% +$1
world 18% +$2
other 12% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A BUY TYLOO 46¢ $1 22d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 35¢ $2 26d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 18¢ $1 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 66d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -7.1% -15.9% 50% 50% -14.9%
≤90d 30 -13.7% -21.9% 63% 60% -22.8%
all 37 +0.3% -9.2% 68% 65% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 65% +2.4%
10% -17.9% 49% -7.4%
15% -25.8% 32% -16.3%
20% -33.1% 24% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.97 · official $3.97 (match) · 86 history records