Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B6 0xb6fc…b24e sports 1638 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,616 (+12%) realized +$5,535 · open +$81
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%705W / 931L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day44.4pace
Fees−$761est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$853
other 4% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 +3.3% -6.6% 42% 42% -4.3%
≤30d 857 +6.7% -3.4% 44% 43% -7.7%
≤90d 1636 +3.6% -6.2% 43% 43% -8.3%
all 1636 +3.6% -6.2% 43% 43% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 43% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 42% -17.1%
15% -23.4% 41% -25.1%
20% -30.9% 39% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$26 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$5,535
Unrealized+$81
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses705 / 931
Est. fees paid−$761
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1636 / 1638
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day44.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1636 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc Saoirse Breen 49¢ 81¢ $123 $205 +$82 (+66%)
ITF Gyula: Adam Jilly vs Aron Janos Major Aron Janos Major 21¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Maanshan: Sheng Tang vs Siwanat Auytayakul Jun 17 $135 −$133 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $54 +$240 +442%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $127 +$123 +97%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $86 −$84 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $120 −$118 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $117 −$115 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $114 +$135 +119%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $65 +$95 +146%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
ITF Tauste: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Iveta Dapkute Jun 16 $122 +$133 +109%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $107 −$105 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $72 −$70 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $167 −$165 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$321 +626%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $81 −$80 -99%
Nefve vs. Wolf: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $77 −$76 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $18 +$8 +42%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $59 −$58 -98%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $100 −$98 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $54 +$73 +137%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $56 −$55 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $14 −$14 -99%
ITF Blois: Astrid Cirotte vs Despina Papamichail Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
ITF Bucharest: Lucie Urbanova vs Anastasia Safta Jun 16 $85 −$83 -98%
ITF Monastir: Mathieu Scaglia vs Nick Beamish Jun 16 $9 −$8 -98%
Mensik vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Dev Javia vs Maxim Shin Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $6 +$5 +76%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $51 +$33 +65%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $75 −$74 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $120 +$131 +109%
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $29 −$29 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $97 −$96 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $140 +$142 +102%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $64 +$39 +62%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $125 +$126 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $162 +$84 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $160 +$87 +55%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $35 +$45 +131%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $69 −$68 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $66 −$65 -98%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $83 +$107 +129%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $26 +$15 +57%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $85 −$83 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $54 −$53 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Gyula: Adam Jilly vs Aron Janos Major BUY Aron Janos Major 21¢ $2 18m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Saoirse Breen 49¢ $125 45m
ITF Maanshan: Sheng Tang vs Siwanat Auytayakul BUY Sheng Tang 53¢ $135 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 48¢ $4 2h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 32¢ $82 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 18¢ $54 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $127 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $120 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 45¢ $117 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $114 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $4 7h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $49 8h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $65 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $107 10h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 30¢ $72 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $167 10h
ITF Tauste: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Iveta Dapkute BUY Meritxell Teixido Garcia 47¢ $122 10h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 13¢ $51 12h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $81 12h
Nefve vs. Wolf: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 38¢ $77 14h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson BUY Kajsa Rinaldo Persson 18¢ $59 15h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 34¢ $100 16h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY 4ikibamboni 60¢ $6 17h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Spirit Academy 64¢ $6 17h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Sofia Kenin 22¢ $56 17h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Spirit Academy 35¢ $6 17h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 44¢ $43 19h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 57¢ $14 19h
ITF Blois: Astrid Cirotte vs Despina Papamichail BUY Astrid Cirotte 40¢ $102 19h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 34¢ $11 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.90 · official $198.54 · 3500 history records