Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6f9…1dbf sports 265 markets active 6h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$80 (-7%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%121W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$5
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$80
other 3% $0
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -73.0% -75.5% 20% 20% -61.7%
≤30d 22 +7.8% -2.5% 59% 45% -0.3%
≤90d 92 -13.1% -21.4% 49% 42% -14.4%
all 264 -13.3% -21.5% 46% 44% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 44% -16.1%
10% -29.0% 38% -24.1%
15% -35.9% 32% -31.4%
20% -42.2% 23% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses121 / 143
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)264 / 265
History coverage190d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Vici Gaming 91¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Toronto Argonauts vs. Montreal Alouettes Jun 13 $4 +$1 +35%
ITF Los Angeles: Marcel Latak vs Nathan Trouve Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow Jun 08 $4 +$1 +41%
Valencia vs. Bilbao Basket Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 02 $1 +$4 +426%
Boca Juniors vs. Quimsa Jun 01 $2 +$3 +152%
AEK vs. Olympiacos B.C. May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Circuit X Bas May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs AM Gaming (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs May 28 $2 +$3 +216%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - NODWIN Clutc May 28 $4 +$2 +43%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - ESL Challenger League No May 27 $5 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs May 25 $3 +$2 +56%
Chisinau: Elias Ymer vs Saba Purtseladze May 25 $4 +$1 +25%
CSKA Moscow vs. Lokomotiv Kuban May 23 $4 +$1 +18%
World Championships: Sweden vs. Italy May 22 $0 $0 -100%
World Championships: Canada vs. Norway May 21 $5 $0 +3%
World Championships: Austria vs. Switzerland May 20 $5 $0 +5%
ITF Klagenfurt: Aneta Kucmova vs Britt Du Pree May 19 $3 +$2 +47%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs struggletony (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Grou May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
BC Zenit vs. Unics Kazan May 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Le Portel vs. Dijon May 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bordeaux: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 15 $3 +$2 +64%
ITF Klagenfurt: Martina Colmegna vs Linda Sevcikova May 14 $4 +$1 +30%
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - Asian Ch May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - May 12 $3 +$2 +54%
Honor of Kings: JD Gaming vs LGD NBW (BO7) - Honor of Kings Challenger May 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Valencia vs. Saski Baskonia May 10 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Fisher College (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $0 $0 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. New York Liberty May 09 $4 +$1 +18%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs GAM Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Asia- May 08 $4 +$1 +41%
Chemnitz 99 vs. Fraport Skyliners May 07 $4 +$1 +18%
AHL: Manitoba Moose vs. Grand Rapids Griffins May 07 $3 +$2 +45%
Wuxi: Rigele Te vs Dane Sweeny May 04 $4 +$1 +16%
PAOK vs. Peristeri May 03 $3 +$2 +47%
Manresa vs. Valencia May 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs Keyd (BO3) - CCT South America Seri May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Saint-Malo: Lucie Nguyen Tan vs Alice Tubello Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 28 $20 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Clutchain (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Onlin Apr 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Alter Ego vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - MPL Indon Apr 26 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Caldya Esport vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL France: Revolution St Apr 24 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Apr 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Savannah: Braden Shick vs Mitchell Krueger Apr 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Savannah: Michael Mmoh vs Franco Roncadelli Apr 21 $1 +$4 +456%
Will Cedric Coward win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 21 $26 −$9 -35%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia G Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 91¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 33¢ $2 30h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs BUY OLDBOYS- 67¢ $3 2d
Toronto Argonauts vs. Montreal Alouettes BUY Montreal Alouettes 74¢ $4 4d
ITF Los Angeles: Marcel Latak vs Nathan Trouve BUY Marcel Latak 27¢ $1 5d
Partizan vs. BC Dubai BUY BC Dubai 35¢ $2 6d
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow BUY CSKA Moscow 71¢ $4 9d
Valencia vs. Bilbao Basket BUY Bilbao Basket 14¢ $1 14d
Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife BUY La Laguna Tenerife 19¢ $1 15d
Boca Juniors vs. Quimsa BUY Quimsa 39¢ $2 16d
AEK vs. Olympiacos B.C. BUY AEK 12¢ $0 17d
AEK vs. Olympiacos B.C. BUY AEK 12¢ $0 17d
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Circuit X Bas BUY Game Hunters 25¢ $1 18d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs AM Gaming (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs BUY AM Gaming 31¢ $2 19d
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - NODWIN Clutc BUY INOX Division 70¢ $4 20d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - ESL Challenger League No BUY M80 97¢ $5 21d
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY ALGO Esports 64¢ $3 22d
Chisinau: Elias Ymer vs Saba Purtseladze BUY Elias Ymer 80¢ $4 23d
CSKA Moscow vs. Lokomotiv Kuban BUY CSKA Moscow 84¢ $4 25d
World Championships: Sweden vs. Italy BUY Italy $0 26d
World Championships: Canada vs. Norway BUY Canada 97¢ $5 26d
World Championships: Austria vs. Switzerland BUY Switzerland 95¢ $5 28d
ITF Klagenfurt: Aneta Kucmova vs Britt Du Pree BUY Britt Du Pree 68¢ $3 29d
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs struggletony (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Grou BUY struggletony 74¢ $4 29d
BC Zenit vs. Unics Kazan BUY Unics Kazan 34¢ $2 31d
Le Portel vs. Dijon BUY Dijon 97¢ $5 32d
Bordeaux: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Roman Andres Burruchaga BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 61¢ $3 33d
ITF Klagenfurt: Martina Colmegna vs Linda Sevcikova BUY Martina Colmegna 77¢ $4 34d
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - Asian Ch BUY SemperFi Esports 34¢ $1 35d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - BUY KT Rolster Challengers 65¢ $3 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 416 history records