Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B6 0xb6f8…dfee crypto 242 markets active 0h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$214 (+18%) realized +$214 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate69%166W / 76L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$7
world 15% +$225
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 211 -6.2% -15.1% 71% 62% -10.3%
≤30d 211 -6.2% -15.1% 71% 62% -10.3%
≤90d 240 -5.5% -14.5% 68% 60% -11.4%
all 242 -3.9% -13.1% 69% 60% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 60% +6.8%
10% -21.4% 46% -3.4%
15% -29.0% 24% -12.8%
20% -36.0% 9% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$214
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses166 / 76
Open positions0
Markets (closed)242 / 242
History coverage160d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 242 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 584 history records