Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:15:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B6 0xb6f7…45d5 weather 1177 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,042 (-0%) realized −$1,042 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate92%1085W / 92L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day51.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$320
7 days−$497
14 days−$483
30 days−$1,051
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$1,705
world 1% +$1
other 0% +$7
crypto 0% −$337
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -3.8% -13.0% 87% 7% -10.5%
≤30d 676 +0.4% -9.1% 91% 2% -9.9%
≤90d 1177 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 1% -10.0%
all 1177 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 1% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 1% -18.6%
15% -26.3% 1% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$43 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,042
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1085 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1177 / 1177
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$352
Trades / day51.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1177 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $105 +$46 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $212 −$100 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $209 +$41 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $108 −$102 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $479 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +410%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $2,917 −$228 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $504 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $484 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,147 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $449 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $752 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on June Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $578 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $265 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 15 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 14? Jun 15 $183 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 15 $375 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1,199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 15 $538 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $230 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $262 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $420 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $159 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $107 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $479 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records