Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B6 0xb6f0…1b2e sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$37 (+20%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$67
other 23% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +20.2% +8.8% 58% 58% +38.0%
≤30d 12 +20.2% +8.8% 58% 58% +38.0%
≤90d 12 +20.2% +8.8% 58% 58% +38.0%
all 12 +20.2% +8.8% 58% 58% +38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.8% 58% +38.0%
10% -1.6% 58% +24.8%
15% -11.1% 50% +12.7%
20% -19.9% 50% +1.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$7 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.55 per $1 lost it wins $3.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $24 +$27 +112%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +138%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 17 $18 +$6 +32%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$22 +112%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $19 +$12 +60%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 15 $10 +$10 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 34m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 35m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 38m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $8 52m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $50 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $47 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 45¢ $24 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $20 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 75¢ $18 12h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 99¢ $42 20h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 22h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $20 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 26h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $19 36h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 85¢ $20 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.54 · official $12.54 (match) · 22 history records