Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:17:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6ed…1ae4 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$270 (-2%) realized −$353 · open +$83
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate78%18W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$418per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1,923now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$32
14 days+$282
30 days−$484
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$227
other 28% +$103
economics 14% −$321
politics 3% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +20.0% +8.6% 83% 33% -10.5%
≤30d 19 -6.7% -15.6% 74% 21% -14.1%
≤90d 23 -3.0% -12.3% 78% 22% -13.3%
all 23 -3.0% -12.3% 78% 22% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 22% -13.3%
10% -20.7% 17% -21.6%
15% -28.3% 17% -29.2%
20% -35.4% 13% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$827) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$178 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$1,923
Realized−$353
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses18 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions10
Markets (closed)23 / 33
History coverage42d
Avg bet$418
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $660 $673 +$13 (+2%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $593 $609 +$17 (+3%)
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting? Yes 59¢ 63¢ $237 $255 +$17 (+7%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $130 $126 −$4 (-3%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 41¢ 38¢ $121 $111 −$10 (-9%)
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $24 $60 +$36 (+146%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $17 $32 +$15 (+84%)
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $15 $20 +$5 (+30%)
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $18 $12 −$6 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $34 +$36 +108%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $949 +$1 +0%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $948 +$2 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $299 −$73 -25%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $827 +$1 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $826 +$1 +0%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $352 +$313 +89%
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 06 $14 +$1 +9%
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in May? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%? Jun 05 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 05 $416 +$46 +11%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 30 $550 −$550 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $1,100 +$1 +0%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin May 30 $410 −$236 -58%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 26 $749 +$2 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 25 $748 +$1 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Veronika Erjavec vs Elena Rybakina May 25 $669 +$1 +0%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro May 23 $669 +$1 +0%
AS Roma leading at halftime? May 10 $171 $0 +0%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? May 10 $904 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline May 10 $902 +$1 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse May 09 $1 +$1 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 63¢ $64 1h
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 55¢ $3 17h
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 55¢ $3 17h
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 55¢ $3 17h
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 55¢ $3 21h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 41¢ $4 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 41¢ $109 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 41¢ $1 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 41¢ $7 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $40 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $160 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $23 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $5 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $23 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $40 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $228 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $40 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $103 2d
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 56¢ $4 3d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 45¢ $111 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 48¢ $34 3d
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 56¢ $5 3d
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 56¢ $8 3d
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 56¢ $14 3d
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 56¢ $23 3d
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 60¢ $7 3d
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 59¢ $60 3d
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 58¢ $20 3d
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 57¢ $6 3d
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 56¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,922.81 · official $1,920.79 (match) · 211 history records