Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:30:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6ec…a16e world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+2%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate21%9W / 33L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$15
other 25% −$1
politics 22% +$3
culture 12% $0
sports 9% $0
crypto 1% +$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 0% -7.0%
≤30d 13 +5.9% -4.1% 23% 8% -6.6%
≤90d 13 +5.9% -4.1% 23% 8% -6.6%
all 42 +2.7% -7.1% 21% 7% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 7% -8.1%
10% -16.0% 7% -16.9%
15% -24.1% 5% -24.9%
20% -31.6% 5% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×13.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.26 per $1 lost it wins $8.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses9 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage306d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97¢ 97¢ $45 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $42 +$2 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $24 −$1 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $4 $0 -5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $124 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $3 $0 +5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $17 +$12 +74%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 30 $3 +$4 +108%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 26 $36 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Aug 26 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 26 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Aug 25 $10 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $17 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Aug 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $45 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $6 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $39 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $29 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $16 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $25 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $25 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $19 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $17 22h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $12 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $46 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $24 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $48 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $48 17d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $43 17d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $1 17d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $2 18d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $41 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.57 · official $45.57 (match) · 145 history records