Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B6 0xb6eb…d44f crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$699 (-47%) realized −$699 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate71%5W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$184per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$4

7 days+$4

14 days+$4

30 days+$5

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-17.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+8.3%	-2.0%	100%	0%	-2.0%
≤30d	2	+5.3%	-4.7%	100%	0%	-4.7%
≤90d	3	+12.9%	+2.2%	100%	33%	+1.1%
all	7	-8.7%	-17.4%	71%	14%	-54.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.4%	14%	-54.0%
10%	-25.3%	14%	-58.4%
15%	-32.5%	0%	-62.4%
20%	-39.1%	0%	-66.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 64% · top 2 89% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% too few recent

Fragile wins

80% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$357 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.02 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage

Net worth$48

Realized−$699

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses5 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage95d

Avg bet$184

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	99¢	99¢	$48	$48	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Jun 17	$45	+$4	+8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	May 18	$44	+$1	+2%
Warriors vs. Wizards	Mar 23	$34	+$10	+28%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?	Mar 16	$715	−$715	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on March 15?	Mar 16	$159	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 on March 15?	Mar 16	$427	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 9-15?	Mar 15	$2	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	BUY No	99¢	$48	1h
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	BUY Yes	92¢	$45	29d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	BUY No	98¢	$44	86d
Warriors vs. Wizards	BUY Warriors	78¢	$34	92d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?	BUY Yes	2¢	$715	92d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on March 15?	BUY No	100¢	$159	93d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 on March 15?	BUY No	100¢	$427	93d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 9-15?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	93d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 9-15?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	94d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.35 · official $48.35 (match) · 14 history records