Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:21:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B6 0xb6ea…e90f crypto 174 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$474 (+7%) realized +$421 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate79%132W / 36L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$668now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$236
world 27% +$215
tech 1% +$11
other 1% $0
finance 0% −$2
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +11.2% +0.7% 88% 62% -2.4%
≤30d 10 +15.4% +4.4% 90% 70% +13.0%
≤90d 48 +5.9% -4.1% 81% 60% +1.6%
all 168 -1.1% -10.5% 79% 54% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 54% -3.4%
10% -19.0% 33% -12.7%
15% -26.9% 12% -21.1%
20% -34.0% 5% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$668
Realized+$421
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses132 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)168 / 174
History coverage142d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 79¢ 86¢ $360 $390 +$30 (+8%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 96¢ $153 $170 +$17 (+11%)
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? No 86¢ 96¢ $53 $59 +$6 (+12%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+4%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 84¢ 81¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $31 −$3 -10%
Nothing Ever Happens: June Jun 25 $27 +$4 +14%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 23 $19 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +23%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 01 $56 +$17 +30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 30 $259 +$89 +34%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 17 $107 +$43 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 17 $18 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10AM ET May 16 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 15 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 15 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 15 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 15 $6 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 15 $7 −$7 -96%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 13 $213 +$61 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 03 $24 −$2 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 02 $156 +$57 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 02 $15 +$5 +33%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $10 +$4 +43%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 27 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 27 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11AM ET Apr 27 $12 +$1 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $370 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 26? Apr 26 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6AM ET Apr 26 $32 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 26 $43 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 26 $65 +$33 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 26 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 26 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 26 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3AM ET Apr 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1AM ET Apr 26 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2AM ET Apr 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Apr 26 $96 +$4 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 25 $176 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12PM ET Apr 25 $80 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6AM ET Apr 25 $75 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 15 $80 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 26 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 26 $138 +$17 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 85¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 93¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 93¢ $25 4h
Nothing Ever Happens: June SELL Nothing 99¢ $31 4h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $28 46h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 46h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $24 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $2 2d
Nothing Ever Happens: June BUY Nothing 87¢ $27 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $316 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $1 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $1 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $1 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $1 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $1 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4 22d
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $12 23d
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $41 23d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $11 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $667.76 · official $667.76 (match) · 688 history records