Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:58:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6e9…db1a crypto 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$162 (-7%) realized −$162 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate59%143W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$84
sports 17% −$51
other 2% −$39
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 50% -10.7%
≤30d 2 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 50% -10.7%
≤90d 2 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 50% -10.7%
all 243 -3.0% -12.2% 59% 44% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 44% -16.1%
10% -20.6% 30% -24.2%
15% -28.3% 20% -31.5%
20% -35.3% 12% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$162
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses143 / 100
Open positions1
Markets (closed)243 / 244
History coverage118d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 05 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 05 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 05 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 05 $9 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 05 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 05 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 28 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 28 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Feb 28 $8 −$6 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Feb 28 $4 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Feb 28 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 28 $6 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Feb 28 $3 +$3 +102%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Feb 28 $5 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 28 $34 −$20 -60%
Nets vs. Celtics Feb 28 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 27 $11 +$13 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9AM ET Feb 27 $18 −$7 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8AM ET Feb 27 $13 +$13 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 27 $7 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 27 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 27 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 27 $8 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Feb 27 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Feb 27 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 27 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Feb 25 $6 −$5 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 25 $4 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 25 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Feb 25 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Feb 25 $27 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Feb 25 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Feb 25 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Feb 25 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Feb 25 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Feb 25 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Feb 25 $15 −$7 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 25 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Feb 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 25 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Feb 25 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Feb 25 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Feb 25 $42 −$9 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $8 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $4 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.86 · official $9.86 (match) · 798 history records