Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:50:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B6 0xb6e9…d999 world 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate44%35W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$7
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$20
other 31% +$4
politics 1% +$6
culture 0% +$3
sports 0% +$6
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% −$2
weather 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.6% -8.1% 38% 12% -9.4%
≤30d 27 +75.2% +58.5% 44% 11% -9.4%
≤90d 33 +60.9% +45.6% 42% 9% -9.8%
all 80 +25.7% +13.8% 44% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.8% 10% -9.6%
10% +2.9% 6% -18.2%
15% -7.1% 5% -26.1%
20% -16.2% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +46% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses35 / 45
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage487d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $124 $124 +$0 (+0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $48 −$3 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $388 +$4 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $142 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $141 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +18%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $143 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $248 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $118 +$6 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $121 −$3 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $132 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $164 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $132 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $266 +$2 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $11 $0 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $147 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $4 $0 +6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $456 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1,462 +$3 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $241 −$2 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $5 +$1 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $122 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $124 −$2 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $124 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $358 +$4 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $122 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $155 −$36 -23%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $1,121 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 12 $2,037 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $1,018 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 30 $160 +$4 +3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chi Hyun Chung win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 53% and 55% of the vote in the South Ko Jun 01 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential ele May 31 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30? May 29 $9 +$5 +58%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $124 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $45 19h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $48 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $127 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $20 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $107 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $18 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 42h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $22 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $105 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $9 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $120 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $142 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $142 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $141 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $141 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $1 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $41 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $86 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $128 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 35¢ $141 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $137 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $124 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $124 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $124 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.97 · official $123.82 (match) · 312 history records