Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:48:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B6 0xb6e7…bba3 world 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$1
other 14% +$1
culture 3% +$1
politics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 14 +0.2% -9.4% 36% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 14 +0.2% -9.4% 36% 0% -9.4%
all 28 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 4% -9.1%
10% -16.6% 0% -17.8%
15% -24.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage449d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $81 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $37 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $21 +$1 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $76 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $36 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $37 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $1 $0 +21%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 08 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $16 $0 -0%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Apr 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Mar 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 29 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $42 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $38 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $38 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $34 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $1 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $4 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 72¢ $18 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 72¢ $19 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $6 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $1 45h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $5 45h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $37 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $22 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 17d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 17d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 17d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $21 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 19d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.25 · official $41.25 (match) · 82 history records