Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6e5…595e sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$409 (-32%) realized −$407 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$45
14 days+$90
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$454
other 13% +$43
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +48.1% +34.0% 100% 100% +31.5%
≤30d 6 +25.8% +13.8% 83% 67% -10.4%
≤90d 16 -7.0% -15.8% 69% 44% -34.8%
all 25 -16.0% -24.0% 64% 40% -39.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 40% -39.8%
10% -31.3% 28% -45.6%
15% -37.9% 28% -50.8%
20% -44.0% 24% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$65 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$407
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage154d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $66 $64 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $42 +$24 +57%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 +$6 +17%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$15 +70%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $74 +$7 +10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $37 +$37 +101%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $93 −$93 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 21 $61 +$31 +51%
Set Handicap: Oliynykova (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Rinky Hijikata May 19 $10 +$2 +21%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $38 +$21 +55%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Regular Season May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 16 $38 −$38 -99%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 16 $36 +$2 +6%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $30 $0 +0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 25 $116 −$116 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 19 $115 +$1 +1%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner Mar 19 $99 +$16 +16%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) Mar 19 $104 −$104 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Mar 19 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 9? Mar 10 $11 $0 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 09 $8 +$3 +37%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 22 $10 +$6 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $67 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $42 45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $36 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 91¢ $74 9d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $37 10d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In BUY Invictus Gaming 86¢ $93 29d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner SELL HANJIN BRION 100¢ $92 31d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 65¢ $61 31d
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Daniel Altmaier 82¢ $10 34d
Set Handicap: Oliynykova (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 100¢ $10 34d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 64¢ $38 36d
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Regular Season BUY Ozarox Esports 92¢ $10 37d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $38 66d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Gen.G 100¢ $38 66d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 94¢ $36 67d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China BUY LGD Gaming 73¢ $100 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 89d
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY BNK FEARX 78¢ $116 94d
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B SELL Gen.G 100¢ $116 94d
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B BUY Gen.G 99¢ $115 95d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner BUY BNK FEARX 86¢ $99 95d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 104d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $8 105d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Weibo Gaming 49¢ $5 107d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 44¢ $100 144d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 69¢ $16 149d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Invictus Gaming 64¢ $10 151d
LoL: Top Esports vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) BUY Weibo Gaming 47¢ $104 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.54 · official $63.54 (match) · 49 history records