Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:04:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B6 0xb6e5…7127 other 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 562d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10,142 (+46%) realized +$10,039 · open +$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate52%27W / 25L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$6,399now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$387
14 days−$508
30 days+$12,000
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$457
politics 41% +$10,999
crypto 15% −$1,017
world 3% −$378
sports 0% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -1.2% -10.6% 62% 44% +7.5%
≤30d 37 -17.6% -25.4% 43% 32% +98.7%
≤90d 37 -17.6% -25.4% 43% 32% +98.7%
all 52 -15.9% -23.9% 52% 29% +47.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 29% +47.9%
10% -31.2% 27% +33.8%
15% -37.9% 21% +20.9%
20% -44.0% 19% +9.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 90% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +120% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +64% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$513 vs −$154 · ×3.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.59 per $1 lost it wins $3.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

562d coverage
Net worth$6,399
Realized+$10,039
Unrealized+$103
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses27 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions44
Markets (closed)52 / 96
History coverage562d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $500 $679 +$179 (+36%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $500 $582 +$82 (+16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $500 $420 −$80 (-16%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 86¢ $300 $351 +$51 (+17%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $301 $347 +$46 (+15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $500 $333 −$167 (-33%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 80¢ $200 $313 +$113 (+57%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 66¢ $300 $266 −$34 (-11%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 48¢ $100 $179 +$80 (+80%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 76¢ $100 $142 +$42 (+42%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 60¢ $100 $131 +$31 (+32%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 92¢ $100 $129 +$28 (+28%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 88¢ $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 100¢ $101 $113 +$12 (+12%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 97¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 98¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 36¢ $200 $107 −$92 (-46%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 92¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 98¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 78¢ $100 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $99 +$7 +7%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $300 +$128 +43%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $277 −$277 -100%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $100 +$156 +156%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $100 −$31 -31%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 −$61 -61%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 +$23 +24%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $300 +$277 +92%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $300 +$80 +27%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $101 +$6 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$97 +96%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $143 −$143 -100%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the most seats in South Korea’s Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $22 +$55 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 +$11 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $141 +$84 +60%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$49 +158%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the most seats in South Ko Jun 04 $10 −$9 -93%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $3,419 +$6,153 +180%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $3,050 +$6,364 +209%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by February 28, 2025? Apr 04 $660 −$660 -100%
Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? Feb 22 $392 +$261 +67%
Will Ethereum hit $3500 by February 28 2025? Feb 17 $996 −$598 -60%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $975 +$21 +2%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 21 $960 +$13 +1%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? Jan 04 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024? Jan 04 $10 $0 +5%
Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024? Jan 04 $29 +$1 +3%
U.S. military action against Iran in 2024? Jan 04 $100 +$5 +5%
Pavel Durov leaves France in 2024? Jan 04 $100 +$23 +24%
AOC pregnant in 2024? Jan 04 $180 +$11 +6%
Will Schoof resign as Netherlands PM in 2024? Jan 04 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Biden resign in 2024? Jan 04 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $20 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 31¢ $51 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 7¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 38¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 6¢ $10 18h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 18h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 18h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 24¢ $20 2d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 46¢ $51 2d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 58¢ $51 2d
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 78¢ $101 2d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 2d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 46¢ $68 2d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $39 2d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 36¢ $20 3d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 8¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 3d
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 3d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 4d
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 31¢ $51 4d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 4d
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 92¢ $100 4d
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 86¢ $100 4d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 76¢ $101 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $277 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,398.54 · official $6,398.54 (match) · 476 history records