Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:52:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B6 0xb6e0…4f10 other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$966 (-13%) realized −$842 · open −$124
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%18W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$1,157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$256
7 days−$117
14 days−$117
30 days−$363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$469
sports 12% −$467
tech 5% −$40
crypto 2% −$111
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -26.1% -33.2% 33% 28% -14.5%
≤30d 20 -33.5% -39.8% 30% 25% -23.3%
≤90d 56 -33.3% -39.7% 32% 30% -23.4%
all 58 -35.6% -41.8% 31% 29% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.8% 29% -23.8%
10% -47.3% 26% -31.1%
15% -52.4% 24% -37.8%
20% -57.1% 22% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$66 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$1,157
Realized−$842
Unrealized−$124
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses18 / 40
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)58 / 64
History coverage166d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $963 $940 −$23 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $118 −$82 (-41%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $9 −$9 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $515 −$162 -32%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $247 −$49 -20%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $257 +$34 +13%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $51 −$3 -6%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $71 +$50 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 +$22 +216%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $154 +$171 +111%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $271 +$25 +9%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $22 −$20 -89%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $251 +$61 +24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $150 −$101 -67%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 28 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 21 $203 −$199 -98%
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? May 15 $106 +$15 +14%
Will Drake feature Sexyy Red on ICEMAN? May 15 $252 −$150 -60%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 06 $273 −$186 -68%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lucas Sinclair die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Holly Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? May 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-03? May 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Derek Turnbow die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? May 06 $31 −$31 -100%
Texans vs. Patriots May 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 06 $303 −$294 -97%
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27? May 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Islanders vs. Jets May 06 $300 −$300 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? May 06 $495 −$495 -100%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? May 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $92 +$35 +38%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $101 +$72 +71%
Vinicius Junior: Anytime Goalscorer May 03 $51 +$56 +109%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $202 +$110 +54%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $293 +$119 +41%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 28 $50 +$87 +173%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $354 2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $353 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $535 2h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $198 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $291 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $49 2h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 10h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $196 22h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 22¢ $10 24h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 29h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $5 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $10 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $71 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $102 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-1 BUY $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY $4 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $32 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $243 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 3d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $134 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $295 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $22 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $271 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,156.90 · official $1,156.90 (match) · 161 history records