trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Yes | 69¢ | 52¢ | $1,323 | $998 | −$324 (-25%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Yes | 44¢ | 4¢ | $1,000 | $101 | −$899 (-90%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET | Up | 64¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET | Up | 60¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET | Up | 44¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET | Up | 58¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $1,998 | +$815 | +41% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $5,805 | +$1,663 | +29% |
| Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T? | Jun 12 | $76 | −$74 | -98% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | Jun 12 | $514 | −$440 | -86% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | Jun 12 | $518 | −$479 | -92% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET | Apr 15 | $59 | −$44 | -76% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET | Mar 15 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET | Mar 15 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET | Mar 14 | $21 | −$10 | -47% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET | Mar 14 | $10 | +$5 | +50% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET | Mar 14 | $20 | +$3 | +13% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET | Mar 13 | $12 | +$3 | +22% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET | Mar 13 | $40 | −$15 | -39% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET | Mar 13 | $20 | +$10 | +52% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET | Mar 13 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET | Mar 13 | $20 | +$1 | +4% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET | Mar 13 | $10 | +$7 | +73% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | Mar 13 | $1 | +$2 | +216% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET | Mar 13 | $20 | +$6 | +32% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET | Mar 13 | $10 | +$5 | +55% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET | Mar 13 | $21 | +$11 | +51% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | Mar 13 | $10 | +$4 | +36% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -41.3% | -46.9% | 40% | 40% | +5.6% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -41.3% | -46.9% | 40% | 40% | +5.6% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -60.3% | -64.0% | 25% | 25% | +4.6% |
| all | 22 | -5.4% | -14.4% | 59% | 55% | +4.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.4% | 55% | +4.4% |
| 10% | -22.6% | 45% | -5.6% |
| 15% | -30.1% | 36% | -14.7% |
| 20% | -36.9% | 23% | -23.0% |