Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6dd…fd4e world 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate27%19W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$10
other 23% −$7
politics 18% −$5
sports 10% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 25 -1.7% -11.0% 24% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 66 -2.7% -12.0% 27% 2% -9.9%
all 71 -6.5% -15.4% 27% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 3% -10.4%
10% -23.5% 0% -18.9%
15% -30.9% 0% -26.8%
20% -37.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses19 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage531d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $24 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $23 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $23 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $27 −$6 -22%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $64 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $30 −$4 -13%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $67 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $75 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $69 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $19 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $99 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $71 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $64 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $46 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $34 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $1 $0 +19%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $35 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $32 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $32 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $49 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 10 $135 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $33 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $26 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $26 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $18 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $24 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $24 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $24 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $24 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $24 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $24 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $24 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $20 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $4 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $23 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $16 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $22 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $1 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $23 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $9 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $7 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $7 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $23 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 29¢ $8 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 29¢ $12 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 29¢ $1 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $10 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $17 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 273 history records