Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:28:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B6 0xb6dc…86d4 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$4 (+2%) realized +$3 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$83per market

Trades / day3.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+1.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+12.1%	+1.4%	100%	50%	+1.4%
≤30d	2	+12.1%	+1.4%	100%	50%	+1.4%
≤90d	2	+12.1%	+1.4%	100%	50%	+1.4%
all	2	+12.1%	+1.4%	100%	50%	+1.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.4%	50%	+1.4%
10%	-8.3%	0%	-8.3%
15%	-17.2%	0%	-17.2%
20%	-25.3%	0%	-25.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$207

Realized+$3

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$83

Trades / day3.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	83¢	84¢	$148	$149	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$50	+$8	+16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$50	+$4	+8%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$150	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$50	6h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	92¢	$50	22h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.00 · official $207.00 (match) · 5 history records