Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B6
0xb6dc…2f06
sports · 243 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$122 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$108 · open −$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$166
Realized+$108
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses86 / 135
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions21
Markets (closed)221 / 243
History coverage150d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 21 History 221 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+41%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+83%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 35¢ 14¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 37¢ 2¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-96%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? No 9¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-72%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A B8 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Vitality 71¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Rico 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $7 +$6 +79%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$7 +139%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $7 +$6 +79%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $7 +$6 +79%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -75%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$7 +129%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 04 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $18 +$5 +30%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $7 +$5 +67%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $5 $0 -5%
Will Vitality drop from #1 in the VRS rankings by June 30? Jun 02 $5 $0 -5%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $6 +$15 +237%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $41 +$34 +84%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $38 −$37 -98%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 25 $25 −$14 -58%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $8 +$5 +57%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $10 +$12 +119%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5) May 18 $10 +$20 +197%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 17 $15 +$6 +42%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $3 +$8 +250%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $6 +$5 +89%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) May 15 $5 +$7 +129%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 14 $5 +$4 +78%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $2 −$2 -97%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? May 13 $15 −$5 -34%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) May 12 $5 +$3 +59%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BC.Game Esports (+1.5) May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 47% +$101
world 21% −$46
other 21% +$23
crypto 7% +$21
finance 3% +$4
politics 1% −$12
economics 0% −$6
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $19 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 33¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $7 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $13 37h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 39h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 55¢ $7 40h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $12 42h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 35¢ $4 2d
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 9¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 17¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 22¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 4¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 100¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 55¢ $7 5d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 100¢ $13 5d
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 6d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 55¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -12.9% -21.2% 43% 43% -7.3%
≤30d 40 +7.8% -2.4% 48% 48% +1.1%
≤90d 143 -11.4% -19.8% 38% 38% -15.7%
all 221 -9.4% -18.0% 39% 38% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 38% -4.7%
10% -25.9% 38% -13.8%
15% -33.0% 38% -22.1%
20% -39.6% 34% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.95 · official $165.96 (match) · 585 history records