Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B6 0xb6dc…5d9e crypto 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$359 (-5%) realized −$354 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate76%122W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days−$92
14 days−$304
30 days−$304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$312
weather 4% $0
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -0.9% -10.3% 69% 36% -12.2%
≤30d 161 -0.6% -10.0% 76% 33% -13.2%
≤90d 161 -0.6% -10.0% 76% 33% -13.2%
all 161 -0.6% -10.0% 76% 33% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 33% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 24% -21.5%
15% -26.5% 20% -29.1%
20% -33.7% 18% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$31 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$414
Realized−$354
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses122 / 39
Open positions6
Markets (closed)161 / 167
History coverage11d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? No 97¢ 100¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 99¢ 98¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 47¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $210 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $110 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $116 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $105 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -11%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 6m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 51m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.47 · official $412.66 (match) · 385 history records