Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:29:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B6 0xb6d8…764d crypto 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$58 (+5%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate88%67W / 9L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +3.1% -6.7% 88% 43% -3.3%
≤30d 76 +3.1% -6.7% 88% 43% -3.3%
≤90d 76 +3.1% -6.7% 88% 43% -3.3%
all 76 +3.1% -6.7% 88% 43% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 43% -3.3%
10% -15.7% 18% -12.6%
15% -23.8% 11% -21.0%
20% -31.3% 4% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses67 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage6d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$18 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records