Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6d6…68ab crypto 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$48 (-6%) realized −$41 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate55%93W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$58
14 days+$26
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$42
finance 25% −$4
sports 15% +$1
world 9% −$4
politics 2% −$1
other 2% −$9
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +27.4% +15.2% 70% 37% +13.0%
≤30d 107 +22.2% +10.6% 67% 36% -16.2%
≤90d 168 -0.9% -10.4% 55% 29% -19.2%
all 170 -0.9% -10.3% 55% 29% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 29% -19.1%
10% -18.9% 19% -26.8%
15% -26.7% 14% -33.9%
20% -33.9% 9% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses93 / 77
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)170 / 172
History coverage189d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 62¢ 22¢ $10 $3 −$6 (-65%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.32 · official $3.32 (match) · 478 history records