Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6d3…5baf crypto 1127 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$515 (-9%) realized −$515 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%597W / 530L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$35
14 days−$74
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$618
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -24.1% -31.3% 45% 45% -44.7%
≤30d 181 -15.6% -23.6% 50% 50% -34.1%
≤90d 444 -11.8% -20.2% 53% 52% -23.6%
all 1127 -6.2% -15.1% 53% 51% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 51% -19.3%
10% -23.2% 48% -27.0%
15% -30.7% 43% -34.1%
20% -37.5% 36% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$515
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses597 / 530
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1127 / 1127
History coverage140d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1127 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$6 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2685 history records