Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B6 0xb6d2…d67b sports 764 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (286 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21,942 (+129%) realized +$21,951 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate65%488W / 263L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day286.4pace
Fees−$224est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,562
other 6% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (286 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 689 +3.3% -6.5% 65% 57% -1.0%
≤30d 751 +3.3% -6.5% 65% 57% -1.5%
≤90d 751 +3.3% -6.5% 65% 57% -1.5%
all 751 +3.3% -6.5% 65% 57% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover286.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 57% -1.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 47% -10.9%
15% -23.7% 31% -19.5%
20% -31.1% 15% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$21,951
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses488 / 263
Est. fees paid−$224
Open positions6
Markets (closed)751 / 764
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day286.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 751 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Nigeria 48¢ 56¢ $9 $10 +$2 (+17%)
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Brazil 40¢ 44¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 46¢ 32¢ $6 $5 −$2 (-30%)
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner DXA Esports 53¢ 30¢ $8 $4 −$3 (-44%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 33¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? Under 58¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Kinoa - Map 2 Winner Kinoa 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 15 $92 −$4 -4%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 15 $23 −$5 -22%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 15 $12 +$5 +39%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 15 $33 +$5 +14%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $11 +$3 +32%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 15 $23 +$5 +21%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 +52%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$4 +39%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 15 $40 +$7 +18%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 15 $16 +$1 +9%
Montgomery vs. Krejcikova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $9 −$1 -12%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 15 $7 +$1 +15%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 15 $9 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 +$3 +29%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $7 +$3 +48%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 +$11 +109%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $28 +$12 +44%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $79 +$67 +85%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $67 +$4 +6%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 15 $106 −$15 -14%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $20 −$1 -4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $77 +$23 +30%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe end in a draw? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $9 +$8 +90%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $14 −$4 -31%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $18 −$8 -47%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Cuiabá EC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$2 -8%
Map Handicap: G1 (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $163 +$2 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $236 +$110 +47%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $141 +$35 +24%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$3 +97%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $265 +$72 +27%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$3 +33%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 +$3 +43%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Brazil 40¢ $8 4m
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY DXA Esports 62¢ $2 17m
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY DXA Esports 62¢ $1 17m
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY DXA Esports 49¢ $5 25m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 47¢ $2 33m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 47¢ $3 33m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 41¢ $2 46m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 41¢ $4 46m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 55¢ $1 51m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Rwanda 58¢ $2 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Rwanda 58¢ $7 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Rwanda 59¢ $6 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $3 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 49¢ $2 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 49¢ $5 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Rwanda 55¢ $4 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 49¢ $2 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 40¢ $2 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 47¢ $7 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 47¢ $6 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Brazil 48¢ $5 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $19 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $5 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $6 6h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 69¢ $21 6h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 69¢ $7 6h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $23 6h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $3 6h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $1 7h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $4 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.93 · official $31.93 (match) · 3500 history records