Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:00:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6d0…9b55 sports 132 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,443 (-1%) realized −$3,443 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%70W / 62L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,330per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$1,806est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$374
14 days+$374
30 days+$374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$11,547
other 18% +$4,209
world 1% +$2,128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.9% -6.9% 75% 75% -8.0%
≤30d 8 +2.9% -6.9% 75% 75% -8.0%
≤90d 101 -15.9% -23.9% 47% 45% -21.4%
all 132 -5.2% -14.2% 53% 49% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 49% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 42% -19.2%
15% -29.9% 28% -27.0%
20% -36.8% 20% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$4,375) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,502 vs −$1,779 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,443
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses70 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1,806
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage109d
Avg bet$3,330
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,991 +$224 +11%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,309 +$399 +30%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $870 −$587 -68%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,031 +$1,369 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3,515 +$555 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2,625 +$891 +34%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2,116 +$510 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5,093 −$2,988 -59%
SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5 May 09 $5,796 +$2,051 +35%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1,233 +$1,086 +88%
FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5 May 02 $6,669 −$5,328 -80%
FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5 May 02 $32 −$32 -99%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5 May 02 $4,992 +$1,582 +32%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5 May 02 $126 +$129 +102%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 May 02 $497 −$490 -99%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $4,375 +$927 +21%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $6,420 −$6,354 -99%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $6,391 +$313 +5%
Hannover 96 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $624 −$617 -99%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $526 +$98 +19%
SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $1,046 −$513 -49%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $874 +$172 +20%
Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $510 +$364 +71%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $500 −$492 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $586 +$143 +24%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $402 −$87 -22%
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $100 +$62 +62%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $100 +$86 +86%
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5 Apr 11 $4,440 +$1,787 +40%
RB Leipzig vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $106 −$105 -99%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $100 −$99 -99%
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5 Apr 10 $2,220 +$2,380 +107%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $26 +$113 +442%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $22 −$22 -98%
SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5 Apr 06 $14,222 −$6,338 -45%
Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $3,169 −$3,115 -98%
Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $4,279 −$1,111 -26%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $3,696 +$1,275 +34%
Sheffield Wednesday FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 06 $1,080 +$718 +66%
Preston North End FC vs. Queens Park Rangers FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 06 $965 +$933 +97%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $15 −$15 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $2,175 −$2,175 -100%
Bristol City FC vs. Sheffield United FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 06 $1,249 −$1,249 -100%
Watford FC vs. Charlton Athletic FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $999 −$999 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $2,362 −$2,349 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $3,042 −$635 -21%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 Apr 04 $1,028 +$1,148 +112%
West Bromwich Albion FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 4.5 Apr 04 $3,779 −$3,779 -100%
Oxford United FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 2.5 Apr 04 $6,106 −$6,106 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 04 $4,069 +$2,798 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 78¢ $2,215 12m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1,991 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,709 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $283 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $870 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1,309 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5,400 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $4,031 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $3,515 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,516 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $2,625 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,626 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $2,116 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $2,105 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5,093 3d
SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7,847 41d
SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5,796 41d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 45¢ $2,320 44d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,233 44d
FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $19 48d
FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $2 48d
FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $146 48d
FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 12¢ $5 48d
FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $1 48d
FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $1 48d
FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $3 48d
FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $3 48d
FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $1 48d
FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $1 48d
FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $1 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1105 history records