Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:35:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B6
0xb6ce…895d
world · 331 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$4,324 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$974 · open −$99
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$22,702
Realized+$974
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses111 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions147
Markets (closed)189 / 331
History coverage46d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day67.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 147 History 189 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$22
14 days−$59
30 days−$578
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 80¢ 85¢ $4,811 $5,098 +$287 (+6%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $1,549 $1,606 +$57 (+4%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 98¢ $1,157 $1,299 +$141 (+12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 69¢ 79¢ $883 $1,006 +$123 (+14%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $969 $1,002 +$33 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? No 50¢ 100¢ $471 $951 +$480 (+102%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 15¢ $1,207 $903 −$304 (-25%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $844 $859 +$15 (+2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $759 $742 −$17 (-2%)
Will no player win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $591 $601 +$10 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ 48¢ $458 $576 +$119 (+26%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? No 55¢ 100¢ $278 $508 +$230 (+83%)
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $333 $436 +$103 (+31%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 81¢ 84¢ $402 $422 +$20 (+5%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 98¢ 99¢ $298 $304 +$6 (+2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? No 95¢ 100¢ $284 $300 +$16 (+6%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $266 $292 +$26 (+10%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 88¢ 90¢ $263 $270 +$6 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 99¢ $206 $207 +$2 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 62¢ 52¢ $217 $183 −$34 (-16%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $181 $182 +$2 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $164 $169 +$5 (+3%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $115 $161 +$46 (+40%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 85¢ 76¢ $169 $151 −$17 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 17¢ 21¢ $112 $144 +$32 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $19 +$1 +4%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $28 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 13 $191 −$40 -21%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $63 +$9 +14%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 +$5 +51%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +84%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $62 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $32 −$4 -11%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $17 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $66 −$6 -8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $17 +$1 +5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $264 −$9 -4%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 11 $47 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $3 +$3 +98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $76 $0 +0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $314 +$28 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $121 +$6 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $37 $0 +1%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $12 −$10 -77%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $26 +$7 +26%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $43 +$4 +9%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +2%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $9 +$1 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $32 −$11 -35%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $26 +$11 +44%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,762 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $15 +$1 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $12 −$8 -66%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $6 $0 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $15 −$8 -51%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $69 +$8 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $34 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $12 +$6 +55%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 06 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $16 +$20 +123%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $15 −$2 -13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $3 +$41 +1314%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$4 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 48% −$245
politics 19% −$83
other 17% +$1,228
crypto 15% −$20
economics 0% +$12
finance 0% −$16
tech 0% +$7
sports 0% −$10
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 13m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $43 34m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 61¢ $13 38m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 59¢ $9 43m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 55¢ $5 54m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 87¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 65¢ $29 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $22 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $32 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +69.6% +53.4% 63% 34% -11.8%
≤30d 128 +51.1% +36.7% 59% 30% -10.0%
≤90d 189 +53.5% +38.8% 59% 30% -2.1%
all 189 +53.5% +38.8% 59% 30% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover67.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.8% 30% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here +25.6% 25% -11.4%
15% +13.4% 21% -20.0%
20% +2.3% 19% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,702.25 · official $22,696.84 (match) · 3500 history records