Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:26:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6ce…a992 sports 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26,203 (-27%) realized −$26,203 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%44W / 113L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$620per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1,204est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,293
7 days−$5,069
14 days−$6,038
30 days−$6,038
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$21,395
other 6% −$5,472
politics 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-40.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -99.9% -99.9% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 9 -85.9% -87.3% 11% 11% -92.6%
≤90d 60 -57.0% -61.1% 18% 18% -42.7%
all 157 -33.9% -40.2% 28% 28% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.2% 28% -34.8%
10% -45.9% 27% -41.0%
15% -51.1% 26% -46.7%
20% -55.9% 25% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$600) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -20% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$849 vs −$569 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26,203
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses44 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$1,204
Open positions0
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage215d
Avg bet$620
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 157 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $546 −$517 -95%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,262 −$2,200 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,600 −$1,576 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $797 −$776 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $536 −$528 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $423 +$110 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $307 −$300 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $235 −$230 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,002 −$20 -2%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 20 $2,529 −$2,500 -99%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $2,436 −$2,400 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $216 −$210 -97%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $3,032 +$791 +26%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 13 $1,324 −$1,300 -98%
Flyers vs. Penguins May 12 $600 −$600 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens May 12 $400 −$400 -100%
Penguins vs. Flyers May 12 $1,031 −$1,031 -100%
Penguins vs. Devils May 12 $600 −$600 -100%
Penguins vs. Flyers May 12 $400 −$400 -100%
Wild vs. Stars May 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Canucks vs. Ducks May 12 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? May 12 $403 −$403 -100%
Sharks vs. Ducks May 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 12 $921 −$921 -100%
Flyers vs. Red Wings May 12 $400 −$400 -100%
Flames vs. Avalanche May 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Jets vs. Blues May 12 $600 −$600 -100%
Panthers vs. Senators May 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Kings vs. Canucks May 12 $3,600 −$3,600 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Islanders May 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Kings vs. Avalanche May 12 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Avalanche vs. Kings May 12 $6,400 −$6,400 -100%
Kings vs. Avalanche May 12 $6,200 −$6,200 -100%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 12 $1,019 +$1,713 +168%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $3,043 +$11,815 +388%
Golden Knights vs. Canucks Apr 08 $3,500 +$3,514 +100%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $1,000 −$519 -52%
Panthers vs. Canadiens Apr 08 $1,200 −$767 -64%
Blues vs. Avalanche Apr 06 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Bruins vs. Flyers Apr 06 $500 −$500 -100%
Panthers vs. Penguins Apr 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 06 $400 −$400 -100%
Wild vs. Red Wings Apr 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Predators vs. Sharks Apr 05 $350 −$350 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Oilers Apr 05 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Flames vs. Ducks Apr 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Kings Apr 05 $1,800 +$1,998 +111%
Pelicans vs. Kings Apr 04 $410 −$410 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 04 $1,210 +$150 +12%
Flyers vs. Islanders Apr 04 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $14 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes $14 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $82 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $101 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $241 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $1,028 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $21 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $82 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $103 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $514 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $514 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,600 45h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: 1st BUY 53¢ $400 45h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $797 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $536 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $533 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $423 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $307 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 22¢ $235 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 79¢ $969 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1,002 12d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 61¢ $2,529 37d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 19¢ $410 41d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 39¢ $407 41d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 59¢ $607 41d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 62¢ $1,011 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 489 history records