Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:40:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B6 0xb6cd…4c1b other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-6%) realized −$23 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$16
crypto 13% −$8
world 4% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -34.2% -40.4% 50% 50% -11.8%
≤30d 4 -34.2% -40.4% 50% 50% -11.8%
≤90d 4 -34.2% -40.4% 50% 50% -11.8%
all 4 -34.2% -40.4% 50% 50% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.4% 50% -11.8%
10% -46.1% 25% -20.3%
15% -51.3% 25% -28.0%
20% -56.1% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$28 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 68¢ $95 $102 +$7 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $71 +$34 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $96 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $71 37h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.46 · official $173.46 (match) · 12 history records