Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:37:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6cb…34ba crypto 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$96 (-7%) realized −$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%71W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$12
14 days−$145
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -2.8% -12.1% 31% 28% -11.5%
≤30d 161 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 35% -18.7%
≤90d 161 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 35% -18.7%
all 161 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 35% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 35% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 27% -26.5%
15% -29.4% 20% -33.6%
20% -36.3% 17% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses71 / 90
Open positions0
Markets (closed)161 / 161
History coverage12d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 161 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$19 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$14 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$15 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$13 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$4 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$6 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$6 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$5 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$7 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$6 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $8 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $9 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $3 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $6 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 386 history records