Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:37:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6c8…b9e6 other 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$80,803 (+5%) realized +$74,009 · open +$6,794
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate59%88W / 62L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$9,522per market
Trades / day38.5pace
Fees−$240est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$347,099now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$234,581
finance 16% +$5,360
other 8% +$542
tech 4% +$1,393
economics 4% +$76,204
sports 3% +$6,158
crypto 2% −$419
politics 1% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -21.8% -29.3% 47% 35% -7.5%
≤30d 120 -18.0% -25.8% 53% 36% -6.9%
≤90d 150 -2.5% -11.8% 59% 36% +19.3%
all 150 -2.5% -11.8% 59% 36% +19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 36% +19.3%
10% -20.2% 28% +7.9%
15% ← realistic here -27.9% 20% -2.5%
20% -35.0% 13% -12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$3,167) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,771 vs −$241 · ×15.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×22.19 per $1 lost it wins $22.19
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$347,099
Realized+$74,009
Unrealized+$6,794
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses88 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$240
Open positions14
Markets (closed)150 / 163
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$9,522
Trades / day38.5
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $146,302 $153,845 +$7,543 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $49,386 $50,047 +$661 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $45,240 $46,020 +$780 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $37,390 $37,812 +$422 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 92¢ 81¢ $32,606 $28,790 −$3,816 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $13,906 $14,189 +$282 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $5,479 $5,988 +$509 (+9%)
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $3,011 $3,073 +$61 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $2,670 $2,976 +$306 (+11%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $1,798 $1,808 +$11 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,291 $1,298 +$7 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $876 $889 +$13 (+1%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $344 $359 +$14 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $304 +$205 +67%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $21,453 +$130 +1%
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $2,410 +$74 +3%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $3,554 +$230 +6%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $26 −$25 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $504 −$500 -99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $19,564 +$364 +2%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $19,386 +$161 +1%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $300 +$109 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,004 +$159 +16%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $1,004 +$172 +17%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $504 −$144 -29%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $202 −$87 -43%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $202 +$126 +62%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $302 +$109 +36%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $302 +$60 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3,013 +$133 +4%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $505 +$119 +24%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $1,004 +$69 +7%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $203 −$6 -3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $152 +$79 +52%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $152 +$102 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,457 +$736 +30%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $303 +$158 +52%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 −$9 -9%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $505 +$108 +21%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $102 +$17 +16%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $202 −$14 -7%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $31 −$9 -30%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? Jun 26 $31 −$3 -11%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $31 −$10 -32%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Jun 26 $21 −$9 -44%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 −$60 -59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $302 +$109 +36%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$47 -45%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 54m
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $30 56m
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $10 1h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $21 1h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $42 2h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $49 2h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $4 2h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 2h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $15 2h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $50 2h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $552 2h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $17 3h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $14 5h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $44 6h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $26,100 6h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $7,174 6h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $53 6h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $9 6h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $18 7h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $9 7h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $67 7h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 7h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $100 7h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $420 7h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $10 7h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $130 7h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $7 8h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $847 9h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $347,098.58 · official $347,091.93 (match) · 3500 history records