Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:26:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B6 0xb6c7…07de weather 239 markets active 2h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$361 (-1%) realized −$366 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate63%149W / 89L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$30
14 days+$83
30 days+$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% +$301
crypto 32% −$589
other 1% −$77
sports 0% −$3
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
world 0% −$3
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 26 +2.6% -7.2% 96% 4% -8.0%
≤90d 83 +3.0% -6.8% 94% 2% -8.2%
all 238 -13.2% -21.4% 63% 15% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 15% -10.7%
10% -28.9% 11% -19.2%
15% -35.8% 8% -27.0%
20% -42.1% 5% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$366
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses149 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)238 / 239
History coverage588d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or below on June 22? No 77¢ 81¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $496 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $485 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $480 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $104 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $369 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $101 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $360 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $101 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $341 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $329 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $121 +$14 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $419 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $417 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 7? Jun 06 $406 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $400 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $400 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $390 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $387 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $380 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 31? May 31 $374 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 29? May 30 $370 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 29? May 29 $372 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C or below on May 27? May 28 $359 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 26? May 25 $350 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 21? May 21 $347 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 17? May 18 $343 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 16? May 16 $340 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 15? May 15 $335 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 14? May 14 $333 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 13? May 13 $329 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 12? May 12 $326 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 11? May 11 $318 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 10? May 10 $316 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 9? May 09 $315 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 6? May 08 $311 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 5? May 05 $310 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 4? May 04 $303 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 2? May 02 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 1? May 01 $295 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 30? Apr 30 $293 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 29? Apr 29 $290 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 28? Apr 28 $285 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 28? Apr 27 $284 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 27? Apr 27 $270 +$14 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 27? Apr 26 $271 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 26? Apr 26 $265 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 25? Apr 25 $260 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 25? Apr 24 $260 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or below on June 22? BUY No 77¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $499 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $499 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $496 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $485 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $482 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $480 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $110 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $373 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $104 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 89¢ $104 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $369 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $366 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $360 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $101 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 83¢ $111 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $344 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $101 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $111 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $341 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $337 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $30 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $100 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $135 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $299 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? BUY No 89¢ $121 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $420 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $419 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $419 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $417 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.25 · official $105.25 (match) · 508 history records