Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:59:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B6 0xb6c6…933a sports 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$827 (+11%) realized +$888 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%43W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$171
7 days+$803
14 days+$803
30 days+$803
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$881
other 13% −$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -8.1% -16.8% 55% 55% +0.8%
≤30d 78 -8.1% -16.8% 55% 55% +0.8%
≤90d 78 -8.1% -16.8% 55% 55% +0.8%
all 78 -8.1% -16.8% 55% 55% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 55% +0.8%
10% -24.8% 54% -8.9%
15% -32.0% 47% -17.7%
20% -38.7% 35% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$74 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$888
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses43 / 35
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 80
History coverage7d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Virtus.pro 63¢ 81¢ $56 $72 +$16 (+29%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Aryna Sabalenka 57¢ 20¢ $120 $42 −$78 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $80 +$48 +61%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $51 +$29 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $253 +$400 +158%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $101 +$65 +64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $76 +$30 +40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $102 +$136 +134%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $495 +$392 +79%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $98 −$96 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $51 +$47 +94%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $47 −$47 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $51 +$35 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $119 −$119 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $152 −$152 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $276 −$276 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $93 −$93 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $90 +$41 +46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $406 +$426 +105%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $157 +$89 +56%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $97 +$60 +62%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$136 +67%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $76 +$27 +36%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $79 +$21 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $71 +$32 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$96 +48%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $76 +$63 +82%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $53 +$22 +41%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $51 +$33 +64%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $50 +$22 +43%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $66 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $30 +$7 +23%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $39 −$39 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $94 +$56 +59%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $102 +$112 +110%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $42 +$43 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 63¢ $57 15m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $128 17m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 57¢ $122 1h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 62¢ $80 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL REKONIX 100¢ $79 3h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY REKONIX 63¢ $51 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $653 13h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $166 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $253 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $106 15h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 60¢ $101 16h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 71¢ $76 16h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $238 16h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $102 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $888 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $495 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 48¢ $98 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $98 23h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 63¢ $47 26h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 51¢ $51 27h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 65¢ $101 38h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea SELL 9z Team 100¢ $86 38h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY 9z Team 58¢ $51 39h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $131 40h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $832 40h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 68¢ $90 42h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $406 43h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 47¢ $119 43h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 60¢ $101 44h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $93 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.54 · official $114.55 (match) · 136 history records